Favourites for the Bay Hill Invitational

Part three of the four-week Florida swing – the Bay Hill Invitational - gives the US Tour pros the chance to pay homage to golf legend Arnold Palmer.

Arnie loved the Bay Hill course so much when he played there in 1965 that, like most Americans who take a fancy to something, he bought it.

Palmer has tinkered with the course many times in the intervening 34 years and Bay Hill now ranks as a severe test with all four par threes in excess of 200 yards and two notoriously difficult final holes.

Given their devotion to Arnie, it's no surprise to see a world-class field out in force this week.

Tiger Woods takes top billing, with Ernie Els, Davis Love, Mark O'Meara, Phil Mickelson, Colin Montgomerie and Lee Westwood all gunning for glory too.

Woods, with the US Masters now very much in his mind, is a best-priced 7-1 to take his second US Tour title of the season with Els, the defending champion here, his nearest rival in the betting.

THE LEADING CONTENDERS

Tiger Woods: Four lengthy par fives should have Woods licking his lips and a fortnight off should leave him fresh and raring to go. His two visits here so far have produced a top ten in 1997 and a tied 13th last year. That latter finish should have been much better but, tied for the lead going into Sunday's weather-delayed final 36 holes, he shot 73-77 to fall away completely. But on this season's form Tiger is almost guaranteed to make a big challenge again. Five top fives in just six starts, including a victory in the Buick Invitational, make him a worthy favourite and the galvanising effects of a new caddie on his bag should also be considered.

Ernie Els: After winning the Nissan Open and blowing the Doral-Ryder Open on the final hole, Ernie looked to be relaxing last week, even finding time for a quick paddle when finding water during his second round. As the current champion, following his last-day charge last year, he will want to make a spirited defence but the South African probably has his eyes on the Players' Championship and the Masters so he may hold back again.

Davis Love: Love finished tied second in the Nissan Open on his last strokeplay start and can also boast another runners-up spot and a tied fifth in a total of just five regular starts this year. Love has yet to get his hands on this tournament although he's been very close, finishing tied second in both 1989 and 1993. He's also finished in the top 16 at Bay Hill for the last four years so the door will surely open soon for the former USPGA champion.

Mark O'Meara: The Masters and Open champion suffered a bit of a lean spell after his tied second in the season-opening Mercedes Championship but bounced back to form in the wind of south Florida last week when tied third at the Honda Classic. Missed the cut here last year but landed the each-way money in both 1996 and 1997 when tied fourth and tied third. Plenty going for him and looks a decent price at 20-1.

Justin Leonard: Leonard has made the top 15 in all five starts this year, with a second place behind Rocco Mediate in Phoenix his closest brush with victory. That excellent form, which has resulted in just one over par round in 19, makes him a man to respect even though his course form looks a bit shoddy. However, Leonard proved himself in this part of the world when winning the Players' Championship last year and he can never be written off.

Vijay Singh: Buoyed by news that caddie Dave Renwick - the cannie Scot who carried his bag to USPGA glory – was not about to jump ship and team up with Tiger Woods, the languid Fijian coolly worked his way through the pack to land the Honda Classic last week. Singh is yet another who has come desperately close to winning this without getting the job done, those near-misses coming in 1993 and 1994 when he was tied second each time. Tied 22nd last year, expect him to extend his good record here.

Phil Mickelson: The left-hander has Jekyll and Hyde form at Bay Hill. In 1995, 1996 and 1998 he failed to make the weekend. But inbetween those disappointments he produced some sparkling golf to capture the title here in 1997. Mickelson's had an uncharacteristically slow start to the season, making the top 15 just once although he did reach the third round in the World Match Play to signal a return to form may be around the corner. The key to Mickelson's win two years ago was his putting and if it does click back into gear again he'll have a leading chance.

Colin Montgomerie: After being thrashed in the first round of the World Match Play, Monty had a pretty low-key week at the Honda Classic when finishing tied 38th after lying off the pace from day one. Monty has been a regular visitor here but it's only the last two years that he's begun to show the local galleries what he's made of, finishing tied 19th in 1997 and a useful tied eighth last year. Again though this has the feel of a warm-up event for Monty so it would come as a surprise if he shows his full hand yet.

Lee Westwood: Westwood made a highly promising debut last year when tied 13th and that could have been a top five but for a tired 76 on Sunday afternoon. After a slow start to 1999, although he did manage a second place in the Dubai Desert Classic, Westwood will be keen to flex his muscles here with the Players' Championship and the US Masters just around the corner. Unlike Monty, Westwood has already won in America, so should he be in contention on Sunday there's no need to worry that he'll buckle.

Jeff Maggert: After an incredible run of second places, Maggert chose the perfect time to get his nose in front when he landed the biggest cheque in the history of golf when winning the Andersen Consulting World Match Play title three weeks ago. It was a deserved victory for the Ryder Cup star and puts him, for the time being at least, on top of the US Money List standings. Maggert had previously highlighted his knack of finding one too good in this very tournament where he finished runner-up in both 1996 and 1998. With that long overdue win under his belt who's to say that he can't do it again on his very next start.

Payne Stewart: This is turning into an excellent season for Stewart who followed up his slightly fortunate win at Pebble Beach with an outright second at last week's Honda Classic. Stewart's excellent putting has played a large part in his success and he sits second only to David Duval in the 1999 putting stats. Stewart can also boast a victory in this tournament in 1987 and a tied third two years ago so he has an impressive CV for a 33-1 shot.

BEST OF THE REST

Bill Glasson enjoyed a fine run in this tournament between 1994 and 1996, twice finishing in the top ten, and has two top fives to his credit this term. Bob Estes, who shared second place with Jeff Maggert last year, also boasts good form this year (two top sevens) while hugely priced Robert Damron lives right by the course and has shown good decent form in the last two Florida tournaments. Chris Riley is a name that may be unfamiliar to many but he posted his third top ten of the season at the Honda Classic last week. Last, but by no means least, Loren Roberts is a two-time winner here (1994 and 1995) and has shown some useful early-season form.

SUMMARY

Although this is a course that, on paper, would appear to suit the longer hitters, a look back in the record books reveals that a running theme that united many of the former champions here is that they were great putters.

From Ben Crenshaw, through Loren Roberts, to the last two winners, Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els, the pattern has continued and that's why it's very important to look at players who can handle the Bay Hill greens.

All our selections this week fall into that category and they have the stats this season to prove it.

Our headline status is bestowed on new Andersen Consulting World Match Play champion Jeff Maggert.

That win in California would have done wonders for the quiet Texan, whose string of second places must have been a great burden.

But now he has seen off one of the hottest fields ever assembled, Maggert can go from strength to strength.

Sensibly he has taken time out since that memorable win, but it's no surprise to see him making his return here.

Maggert simply loves Bay Hill and more than deserves to record a victory here having finished runner-up in two of the last three years (1996 and 1998).

Given all these credentials Maggert looks an excellent punt at 33s (well done to anyone who got on at 40s with Stan James who were quick to cut him to 28s after some early money).

One strange statistic about the last two winners, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson, is that prior to their victories here they had shown lousy form at the course, both missing the cut 12 months before their triumph.

If that sequence is to continue then Mark O'Meara is the man to make it a hat-trick.

The double Major champion took the eye last week when showing a notable return to form with a tied third at the Honda Classic and he is strongly fancied to continue his momentum here.

And, although, as stated, Els and Mickelson proved that course form isn't necessarily a pre-requisite for winning this title, O'Meara despite his missed cut last year, does have past form here and that can only be in his favour.

What's more, his two big performances came very recently with a tied fourth in 1996 and a tied third in 1997.

With all that on his CV, O'Meara looks a bit underrated by some of the layers this week and the 20-1 with Coral and Stan James must be taken.

Prior to the victories of Mickelson and Els, Bay Hill had seemed a venue for the course specialists.

Loren Roberts proved this by winning back-to-back in 1994 and 1995 and even shock 1996 winner Paul Goydos had shown a string of promising performances at Bay Hill in his relatively lacklustre past.

So we can also approach our quest for the winner using course form as the chief factor.

On price alone the one who has to stand out is Roberts himself.

Roberts normally has to wait for the Florida tournaments to swing into action before he shows much form but already this year he's posted two top tens and reached the third round of the World Match Play.

As well as those two wins at Bay Hill, Roberts was also tied sixth two years ago so the quote of 50-1 with Stan James must take any serious golf punter's eye.

Roberts' nickname, ”The boss of the moss”, is a deserved moniker given his prowess on the greens and once again this year he's in the top ten on the putting stats. That silky stroke could be the difference this week and those who've had success on Roberts before know he's got a cool head down the finishing straight.

Our fourth pick is Texan Bob Estes.

In a tournament where previous winners have been good putters and shown either strong course or current form, Estes covers all bases.

Estes was tied second to Els here last year, tied fourth in the Bob Hope, tied seventh in the Nissan and then tied 15th at the Honda Classic last week.

And throw in his tied 10th in the putting stats and he looks massively overpriced at 66-1 with Stan James.

That suspicion is confirmed when we glance elsewhere with Coral and Hills both half those odds at 33s. The 66s looks a real rick.

For those of you obsessed by pulling off the big hit – and Goydos' 125-1 triumph in a top-class field three years ago gives us hope – there are two big outsiders who look very interesting.

Florida resident Robert Damron comes into the tournament with progressive form figures of tied 44th and tied 27th.

And to prove that living right next to the course isn't a red herring he finished tied 11th here two years ago and led after round one last year before finally finishing tied 29th.

Chalked up at 66-1 in several places, Stan James are again out of line with their massive quote of 125-1.

Chris Riley is a young player who looks to have a very bright future.

After some terrific displays in his rookie year on the Nike Tour, he's taken the step up to the full Tour in his stride with three top tens this year.

In the two Florida tournaments he's finished tied 19th and tied ninth and, with particular relevance to this tournament, he's also seventh in the putting stats. Take the 80-1.

Tiger Woods has to be a big threat but he's come unstuck here before when in good positions so we'll reluctantly pass him by.