Betting preview of the US Open

After the damp squib at Olympic Club last year when none of the leading fancies ever got in a blow, the 1999 US Open at Pinehurst No.2 promises to be an absolute scorcher.

The key reason why many observers reckon that this will be one of the most memorable US Opens in modern times is that Pinehurst itself is unlike all of the US Open venues you've ever seen before.

Instead of thick rough bordering the greens there are run-off areas which mean that only the most accurate iron shots will stay on the putting surfaces and avoid rolling possibly 30 or 40 feet away.

And with greens shaped like the back of a spoon the ability to scramble and get up and down will probably decide where this tournament is won and lost.

The Donald Ross designed masterpiece measures in at 7,175 yards. It has two par fives, one of 610 yards, a series of strong par fours, three over 480 yards, two par threes of over 200 yards and three shortish par fours designed to tease the best of them.

No European has won this tournament since 1970 and Colin Montgomerie is the most fancied to end that run this time.

He's as short as 12-1 in places but favouritism, as expected, goes to Tiger Woods - winner of his last two tournaments.

Showers are forecast for the first two days is showers which may make the ball hold the greens slightly better but unless there's a real deluge its effect won't be too significant.

THE LEADING CONTENDERS

Tiger Woods: The US Open has always been the Major Tiger would be least likely to win the popular theory has it but that may have to be revised after his wins in Germany and the Memorial on his last two starts. Those two victories came on courses with significant rough and although Tiger had to produce some miraculous flop shots to keep his nose in front at Memorial his victory still spoke volumes of his more mature approach. Tiger was also the winner of the Buick Invitational in February and after failing to break the top 15 in four cracks at the US Open this could be his big chance. Eight majors have passed since his remarkable US Masters win in 1997 so Tiger is desperate to get his hands on another one.

David Duval: Four wins this season, including a fantastic triumph at the Players' Championship, have continued Duval's incredible recent dominance which has produced a sequence of 11 wins in 34 tournaments. The only thing missing from the Duval CV now is a Major and he arrives at Pinehurst on the back of a tied third place at Memorial on his last start. Duval's best in the year's second Major was not surprisingly last time out when he was tied seventh at Olympic Club and his ability to relentlessly hit fairways and greens suggests he is more a US Open type than Tiger Woods. However, a spanner was thrown into the works last week when Duval sustained second degree burns on his fingers after picking up a teapot. He admits that had it not been US Open week he would have pulled out. That may be a hint worth taking.

Colin Montgomerie: It's the worst-kept secret in golf that Monty believes that the US Open represents his best chance of bagging that elusive first Major triumph. The straight-hitting Scot has more than paid his dues in this event with near misses in 1992, 1994 and 1997 and although some say he'll forever remain a nearly man due to his suspect temperament the truth is that Monty showed great guts on each of those occasions and just needed a break. Monty also lost a play-off in the 1995 USPGA to Steve Elkington but while he still fails to get the job done in America he remains Europe's number one after capturing a record-breaking sixth Order of Merit title last year. He's continued his dominance of Europe in 1999 with a simply brilliant five-shot win in the Volvo PGA and there's plenty of reason to believe that this could be his year.

Ernie Els: Els once said that the US Open was the least likely of the four Majors he would win but that notion has proved well wide of the mark after his brilliant triumphs at Oakmont in 1994 and Congressional in 1997. Els also finished in the top seven in 1993 and 1996 so he is one of the perennial favourites here and a hat-trick of titles could well be on the cards. The languid South African, who recently became a father for the first time, will still be fuming at his final round 80 at Augusta two months ago when a first Green Jacket looked within bounds and he warmed up nicely for Pinehurst with a top ten at Memorial on his last start. His victory in the Nissan Open earlier this year continued his record of winning on the US Tour every year since 1994 and with Pinehurst being likened to Wentworth - the scene of Els' three World Match Play titles - he should relish the place.

Davis Love: Love has been one of the big players on the US Tour throughout the decade and finally clinched his first Major with a stunning performance at the USPGA in 1997. Prior to that his nearest brush with victory came in the 1996 US Open when he three-putted the final green to finish one behind winner Steve Jones. Suffered another near miss at this year's US Masters when an excellent second to Jose Maria Olazabal and was right up with the pace at the Players' Championship before suffering a nightmare at the 17th. Although yet to win in 1999, he's come close on numerous occasions with nine top tens in 14 starts, the most recent at the St Jude Classic last week. In addition he used to play Pinehurst with his father and won a North-South Amateur on the famed No. 2 so he has more experience of the course than almost anyone.

Vijay Singh: Singh arrives at Pinehurst on the back of a superb second place behind Tiger Woods at Memorial. And importanly he has plenty of fire in his belly. Singh said after being pipped: "I'm very disappointed finishing second. I thought I was going to win. I played better golf than Tiger did in the final round." And there's no arguing with that. While Woods made incredible up and downs Singh was hitting greens in the right number so if he can get his putter working at Pinehurst the rest better watch out. Singh made the Major breakthrough in last year's USPGA after outlasting Steve Stricker in a tense final round struggle. The Fijian also took the Sprint International the week after and took his tally of US wins to nine on the second leg of the Florida Swing in March when winning the Honda Classic. His US Open form is pretty solid with top tens in 1995 and 1996 and a second Major looks well within bounds.

Nick Price: A three-time Major winner who has racked up a bucketful of titles during an illustrious career. The PGA Tour player of the year in both 1993 and 1994 was an excellent fourth in last year's US Open (a feat he also managed in 1992) and he's been in the top 20 six times in the last eight years. He's been bubbling under so far in 1999 with four top tens in nine starts on the US Tour and this is traditionally the time of year when his game really kicks into gear. Looks to have the right game for Pinehurst and a fourth Major is well within bounds.

Tom Lehman: Lehman's quest for a US Open title is now taking on epic proportions. For the last four years Lehman has gone out in the final group on Sunday but on each occasion he's been left disappointed. In 1995 he shot a final round 74 to finish three behind Corey Pavin, in 1996 a bogey on the final hole after driving into a bunker left him one back from Steve Jones, in 1997 he infamously found water on the 17th to slip two behind Ernie Els and last year a closing 75 left him down in tied fifth - six back from Lee Janzen. Lehman showed guts however to hold off Nick Faldo and win the 1996 British Open and if anyone is owed a US Open then it must be him. After injuring his right shoulder at last year's Open he showed his first signs of recovery at Bay Hill when tied second and although it hasn't been a smooth ride since he looks to be peaking at the right time again with an excellent tied second place at the St Jude Classic last time out.

Justin Leonard: One of the new generation of stars on the US Tour whose profile rose enormously with victory in the Open at Troon two years ago. Also finished second at the USPGA that year and proved his liking for the big occasion with victory in the 1998 Players' Championship. But so far his US Open efforts have been disappointing. Although he's made four cuts out of four he's never got into the mix and a tied 36th in 1997 remains his best finish. His second place in Phoenix earlier this year was the highlight of some fine early season form and after a string of consistent finishes he produced his best effort for some time when tied seventh at Memorial on his last start.

Lee Janzen: Janzen showed ice-cool nerve to capture his second US Open title in brutal conditions at the Olympic club last year. It followed on from his 1993 triumph at Baltusrol and confirmed him as one of the major US Open players of the last decade. Janzen also showed up well in this year's US Masters when tied 14th and continued his fine form with two top ten finishes on his next two starts. Janzen was involved in a car crash after finishing third at the GTE Byron Nelson Classic in April and was fortunate to escape with soreness in his neck and no significant injuries. He proved he had made a full recovery on his last start at Memorial when he produced a stunning opening round 65 although he fell away over the weekend. Although only two men have made a successful defence of the US Open crown since 1951, Janzen must have high hopes - especially as he finished second at Pinehurst in the 1991 Tour Championship.

Jim Furyk: Furyk, the man with the strangest swing on Tour, has a superb record in the Majors with at least a top six finish in all four. His straight-hitting is ideal for US Open courses and finishes of tied fifth in 1995, tied sixth in 1996 and tied 14th last year make him a proven customer in this event. Not at his best in 1999 but top 20s in the Players' Championship and the US Masters shows he can raise his game for the big events and he also took second place at Greater Greensboro at the end of April.

Lee Westwood: Westwood firmly believes that the US Open represents his best chance of Major success and his two efforts so far - tied 19th on debut and tied seventh last year - suggests he's spot on in that assessment. The Worksop wonder made his first serious run at Major glory in the Masters two months ago when he hit the front of the leaderboard nine holes from home. Although he couldn't keep his charge going it was invaluable experience and he will be much better equipped next time. Westwood also won the Freeport McDermott Classic on only his eighth start in the States last year so he has the pedigree to become the first Brit to win this event since Tony Jacklin in 1970. That's the good news. The bad news is Westwood's recent injury worries which have led to a string of poor finishes over the last month. And this is not the time or the place to be anything but 100%. His sometimes suspect chipping will also count against him.

Steve Elkington: Elkington joined the Major men club after winning the 1995 USPGA in a playoff and his classic swing suggests he could win more. However, the US Open hasn't really been his forte, and despite regularly making the cut he's never posted a top 20 this decade. Lightly raced after being hampered by illness over the last couple of years, Elkington produced one of his famous final round charges to win the Doral-Ryder Open in March. But since then he hasn't hit the heights and missed the cut at Memorial on his last start.

Phil Mickelson: Mickelson isn't most people's idea of a US Open winner but that's a little unfair given his tied fourth place in 1995 and another top ten last year. Amazingly the left-hander has yet to win this year, the impending birth of his first child limiting his schedule and possibly putting his mind elsewhere. However, he's still played some solid stuff and six top 11 finishes in his last nine starts suggests it won't take much improvement to get back on the winning track. Pinehurst may suit him more than most US Open courses given his brilliant short game although the Scrambling stats suggest he's lost some of his touch in that area this season.

Mark O'Meara: After his amazing double Major success last year, it was always going to be a case of after the Lord Mayor's show this season and rather predictably O'Meara has failed to find a victory in 1999. That's not to say it's been all doom and gloom as he posted a second place in the season-opening Mercedes and two top sixes in March but since then he's had a string of midfield finishes. Even more off-putting is his dire US Open record. Between 1989 and 1994 he missed six cuts in a row and since then he's only appeared in the top 20 once.

Fred Couples: Couples finished tied third in 1991 and also made the top ten in 1988 but it's fair to say that the US Open is not his favourite Major. And as time goes by his performances seem to be getting worse with a missed cut in 1996 and two finishes outside the top 50 in 1997 and 1998. If his game was in top gear then he wouldn't be a total no-hoper but since coming through the field to tie fourth at the Players' Championship in March he hasn't made the top 20 in five starts since.

Jesper Parnevik: Twice a runner-up in the British Open, Parnevik has only played the US Open twice but he did manage a top 15 last year following a tied 48th on debut. Won the 1997 Phoenix Open to give him his first win in America and added a second title after a brilliant under-23-par effort at Greater Greensboro at the end of April. Also played well in the German Open last month when finishing tied 11th behind Tiger Woods so despite a tied 43rd at Memorial two weeks ago he looks one of the best equipped Europeans to make a decent challenge.

Jose Maria Olazabal: After clinching his second US Masters crown at Augusta in April it will be a surprise to some that Ollie is on offer at 50-1 to follow-up in the US Open. That's due to the belief that whereas Olazabal can get away with his erratic driving at Augusta, the penal rough at US Open courses catches him out. That's not to say he's a total no-hoper on US Open courses as he posted three top tens in succession between 1989 and 1991 and has finished in the top 20 for the last two years. And at a course like Pinehurst which puts such a huge emphasis on chipping, Ollie's brilliant short game could put him right in the mix. He'll arrive there brimming with confidence after a fantastic final round 62 rocketed him up to fourth place at the St Jude Classic last week.

Payne Stewart: Suffered heartbreak at Olympic Club last year when pipped by Lee Janzen over the closing holes after leading from day one. Janzen also edged him into second at Baltusrol in 1993 so Stewart could be a triple US Open winner by now having triumphed in 1991. Stewart, who also captured the 1988 USPGA, proved that his stylish swing is still in fine working order by winning at Pebble Beach earlier this year and losing a play-off at Hilton Head. His form has been patchy since but after watching him make so many up and downs last year he could figure prominently at Pinehurst.

Darren Clarke: Yet to make a serious run at a Major despite some solid performances, this could be when Westwood really comes of age. Won the Freeport McDermott Classic on only his eighth start in the States last year and looks comfortable in top class fields. He proved that again with a second successive top six finish in the Players' Championship which could prove an ideal warm-up. Long off the tee, if his putter warms up Westwood looks the man most likely to add to Europe's great recent record in the event.

SUMMARY

Listen to some of the comments from those who have witnessed Pinehurst over the last couple of days and their are some big clues on offer.

Davis Love: "You can't be flying the ball to the back of the green. The guy who is scrambling well will do well there. Because everybody is going to be scrambling."

Rees Jones, the architect who restored No.2's greens: ""All these guys are mechanical players and Corey Pavin won at Shinnecock (in 1995) because he was a magician. It is really going to take a magician rather than a mechanic to win here because they are going to have to manufacture shots. The short game is going to be so important. Less greens are going to be hit than in normal U.S. Opens. It is going to take somebody with some mental fortitude who has been around awhile."

Another clue is provided by Darren Clarke, who has likened Pinehurst to Wentworth - scene of the World Match Play Championship and the Volvo PGA won so emphatically by Colin Montgomerie recently.

Of course driving the ball straight off the tee is also of importance as if you're going to stop the ball on the green then you don't want to be coming out of thick rough.

Let's deal first with those scrambling comments made by Love.

The scrambling statistic is the percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better and the leader of this category right now is double Open winner Nick Price.

We need look no further for our headline pick.

Price claimed he could have won one if not two Majors last season if his putting was better but his ability to get up and down this year proves that he's now starting to hole some clutch putts.

Fourth in last year's US Open, Price believes his game is perfect for Pinehurst where the ability to play links style bump and run-shots will be a key feature.

As a double British Open winner Price does this better than most and he also possesses that other crucial commodity that US Open winners need - patience.

Price is a 28-1 shot to grab his fourth Major and that looks good each-way value.

Our second pick is another with a magical short game - Justin Leonard.

When it comes to winning titles over the last three years it's been very much a case of quality not quantity with the Texas star.

Although he's only won twice since July 1997, his two victories in that time were the 1997 British Open and last year's Players' Championship.

Those wins mark him out as a man for the big occasion and his position in the top 15 on the scrambling stats confirms what we already know - he's an expert around the greens.

Although his US Open record is pretty moderate, he did finish second in the 1997 USPGA at Winged Foot - which was surely a US Open course in all but name.

A handy tied seventh on his last start, Leonard looks to be coming into form at the ideal time and he is a 33-1 with shot with plenty going for him.

The comments that Pinehurst can be compared to Wentworth plays a key role in our remaining picks - Colin Montgomrie, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh.

Monty's US Open story reads like a Shakespearean tragedy with those near misses in 1992, 1994 and 1997.

But his straight-hitting and superb irons (he's number one on the European Tour for greens in regulation) means he should always be short-listed for this particular Major.

And when he arrives at his favourite Major in such sparkling form his chances become even greater.

His second successive Volvo PGA win was surely the finest performance of his career and if he could find that sort of form again he would be hard to dislodge.

Although the 25s offered by Stan James on the morning after that triumph has long since gone, he's still worth a serious punt at the general 16-1.

Singh has been in devastating form over the last ten months and he has the perfect calm temperament for US Open golf.

Top tens in the 1995 and 1996 US Opens confirm that and given the strides he's made since, there's compelling evidence that this will be his best chance yet of winning the season's second Major.

Last time out Singh was hugely unlucky to lose to an inspired Tiger Woods and was confident enough to say that he had outplayed his rival despite the narrow defeat.

If Singh can hole a few putts he will be real contender for the title here and Chandler's 25-1 looks a good bet.

Els, as a two-time US Open champion, needs little introduction but if a course is likened to Wentworth then that should set the alarm bells ringing for fans of the South African.

As well as those three World Match Play titles, Els has also had no end of near misses in the Volvo PGA and tree-lined courses that call for precision are clearly right up his street.

Els, too, should have plenty of fire in his belly after his last-round collapse at the Masters and his disappointing US Open defence last year when he was hit by injury.

So what of the big two - Tiger Woods and David Duval.

Duval tried one full swing on the course on Monday. He pulled out of the shot, hitting it fat, suggesting that the pressure points on his burnt fingers are still hampering him.

To take 10-1 on anyone on a US Open course there must simply be no room for doubt. Clearly Duval is not 100% so unless you won't to get your own fingers burnt, stay away!

Woods is much more difficult to dismiss after his superb win at Muirfield Village but for all his plus points the US Open almost always comes down to patience and that's the one area that Tiger has yet to master.

Yes, he's improved on that front but he's unable to `switch off' like Els, Duval or Singh and this may be the Major that completes his collection rather than the one he takes as the second leg.

Davis Love may be a bigger danger as he probably has as much experience at the course as anyone. He used to play Pinehurst with his late father and first learned the pitch shot on the 14th hole.

However he freely admits that the conditions he'll face this time are unlike anything he will have encountered previously at the place so that past experience may not come into play as much as we may think.

That factor may also count against Paul Azinger, who won the Tour Championship here in 1991 and finished with a burst at the St Jude Classic last week.

Ignoring Jose Maria Olazabal on the basis that he's already one Major is a dangerous policy as Mark O'Meara proved last year and at 50-1 he could go very well.

But although a top ten is well within reach his brilliant short game may just be stretched too far to bale him out for all four days.

Beyond the top names, steady-eddies Jeff Maggert, Jeff Sluman and Loren Roberts all have chances of making the frame while Aussie Stuart Appleby could also be in the shake-up.